Chuck Schumer's Democrats vowed years ago to nuke the filibuster and codify abortion into federal law.
Nothing stopped them except a Senate majority they've never had.
The November 2026 midterms in ten states are about to decide whether Democrats finally get the votes to do it.
The Record Wave of Retirements Handing Democrats Their Best Shot in 2026
Republicans hold the Senate by six seats and the House by seven, and Democrats need only four Senate seats and six House seats to run both chambers.
Thirty five Senate seats are on the ballot this cycle, and Republicans are defending twenty two of them.
Pew Research's Drew DeSilver found that 74 House members already aren't coming back next year, the biggest preelection exodus since 1992.
Forty two of those are Republicans.
Eleven sitting senators aren't running for reelection at all, and every one of those seats starts as a coin flip.
Ballotpedia counted 60 House incumbents skipping reelection entirely, 37 of them Republicans against just 23 Democrats.
Open seats flip more often than seats with an incumbent on the ballot, and right now more of those open seats belong to the GOP.
The Ten Senate Races That Will Decide Who Controls Congress
Every competitive Senate race that matters this year runs through the same ten states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas.
Win most of those and Republicans keep the Senate.
Lose four of them and Chuck Schumer runs it instead.
Townhall's Kurt Schlichter is right that a bad poll seven weeks out is a snapshot, not a sentence, and elections have turned on a dime before.
Why Pro-Life Voter Turnout Could Decide Who Controls the Senate
Amber Roseboom runs Right to Life of Michigan, and she's watched this exact failure happen twice.
"In Michigan, pro-life voter turnout dropped 19 percent from 2016 to 2018 and 26 percent from 2020 to 2022," Roseboom said.
"Polling demonstrates that if we can increase expected pro-life voter turnout by just 4 percent this year, we can win."
That's not a Michigan problem, it's a national one.
Pew Research clocked general midterm turnout falling from 48.1 percent in 2018 to 45.1 percent in 2022, the same drop-off pattern showing up everywhere pro-life voters decide the race is already won.
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and Women Speak Out PAC are putting eighty million dollars behind reversing that exact pattern, aiming to reach 10.5 million voters through canvassing, digital ads, mail, and early voting in Iowa, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina.
SBA President Marjorie Dannenfelser said the mission is simple: fire up pro-life Americans who don't consistently vote in midterms.
Montana Senator Tim Sheehy called the number "a massive amount" and said it shattered the narrative that pro-life voters were somehow the radicals in this fight.
What Codifying Roe v. Wade Would Undo for Every Pro-Life Law on the Books
Elizabeth Warren has already told her party what a Democrat majority is for, vowing to suspend the filibuster and codify abortion into permanent federal law the moment Democrats have the votes.
Democrats tried this once already, in May 2022, and it died 49 to 51 when Joe Manchin crossed over and voted with every Republican in the chamber.
Manchin and every other Democrat who ever crossed the aisle on abortion are gone from the Senate now, replaced by whoever these ten states send to Washington in January.
Four Senate seats is all that stands between that vote failing again and Elizabeth Warren getting exactly what she asked for.
Win it, and abortion gets codified into permanent federal law, the Hyde Amendment disappears, taxpayers go back to funding Planned Parenthood, and no pro-life judge gets confirmed to a federal bench for two more years.
Democrats know the issue can cost them too, which is why some are already shifting their talking points toward affordability instead of abortion heading into November.
Pro-life voters don't need to guess how this ends, they need to show up.
Sources:
- Dave Andrusko, "10 States Will Determine if Radical Pro-Abortion Democrats Take Over Senate," LifeNews.com, September 18, 2026.
- Staff, "Leading Pro-Life Group To Spend $80 Million In 2026 Midterms," The Federalist, November 18, 2025.
- Kurt Schlichter, "How Are We Doing With the Midterms, Seven Weeks Out?," Townhall, September 17, 2026.
- Staff, "Reporters Incorrectly Claim Abortion Bill GOP Filibuster," Fox News, May 2022.
